Numéro : 2757 - Year : 2020

Network effects rule the maritime commerce evolution

Zuzanna KOSOWSKA-STAMIROWSKA - NavAlgo – Palaiseau (France)

Over 70% of the total value of international trade is carried by sea, accounting for 80% of all cargo volumes. Maritime trade flows impact not only the economic development of the concerned regions, but also their ecosystems. Shipping routes are constantly evolving and likely to be affected by the consequences of Climate Change, while at the same time ships are a considerable source of pollution.

This was the first work to perform a rigorous and comprehensive analysis of maritime trade flows on a global scale over a long period of time, taking into account aspects of evolution, reactions to shocks, and discovering predictive models.

We used machine learning methods to uncover the single dominant dynamics to govern the evolution of the structure and the intensity of maritime trade which originates from Network Science, namely the Number of Common Neighbours between the ports. The finding is consistent for all ship types, over 30 years of data covering daily movements of the world fleet

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