Numéro : 1968 - Year : 1984
Probabilistic evaluation of a subsea cluster production
J. P. SIGNORET, Ingénieur Société Nationale ELF Aquitaine ( P)
A.LEROY, Ingénieur Compagnie Française des Pétroles
R. GROLLIER .BARON, Ingénieur Institut Français du Pétrole
This paper describes one of the studies jointly realized by CFP IFP- SNEA(P) : the probabilistic evaluation, for a given period, of the hydrocarbon production of a subsea production cluster located within a rough meteo oceanological area.
This evaluation cannot be achieved by using classical methods because the system under study is both multi-states and multi-phased :
.Multi-states because it is no longer possible to describe the cluster functioning in terms of "work" and "don't work" (in fact each cluster state has to be characterized by its productivity which depends upon the number of wells in good producing states).
.Multi-phased because, according to the season, it is not always possible to get a rig onto cluster location in order to repair failed components.
Three compared : different approaches have been developed in order to be
.Development of a specific analytical model,
.Monte Carlo simulation,
.markovian modelization.
Markovian approach has proved very efficient then it is described in more details in the paper in order to show how the notion of availability can be generalized when the system under study can work in degraded configurations.
An actual case is used in order to illustrate the paper.
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